By 1990 it was evident the Yugoslav Federal Republic was
experiencing serious strain. Both Slovenia and Croatia were moving rapidly towards
separation. In Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic had cracked down hard on the Albanian majority
in Kosovo and had removed autonomous status from that province and the northern province
of Vojvodina. Albanian unrest had been suppressed with violence. Human rights violations
increased and the Albanians in Kosovo withdrew from the political and civil life of that
province.
There was every indication of
serious trouble ahead. The first democratic elections in the Republics had chosen leaders
who had appealed to ethnic passions. Throughout the nation an atmosphere of unrest and
fear was evident. Paramilitary groups were being formed. Arms were being smuggled into the
separatist Republics. Civil authority was beginning to break down.
It was in Croatia where the
first sign of trouble occurred. A change in the Croatian constitution which relegated the
Serbian population living there to minority status created an atmosphere of fear and
distrust among those who recalled the devastating impact of Croatian nationalism during
the Second World War. The election of the right-wing nationalist party of Franjo Tudjman
with its anticommunist and anti-Serb campaign added to the concerns of the Serbs living in
Croatia, (Serbs made up a little more than 12 % of the Croatian population in 1991). These
Serbs began to arm themselves and to demand self-determination. In March 1991 the first
armed clashes between Croatian police and Serbian paramilitary groups occurred.
The warning signals that Yugoslavia was beginning to
break apart did not at first cause serious alarm among the Western powers. The United
States was preoccupied by the Gulf War and more concerned about events that were happening
in the Soviet Union. The Europeans were concerned about the Maastricht Treaty and the fall
of the Berlin wall. It was only when the first armed clashes occurred and it became
apparent that Slovenia and Croatia seemed determined to secede from the Federation that
the West turned its attention on Yugoslavia. That attention proved to be unhelpful and too
late.
Franjo Tudjman
Initially the West’s official position
was that Yugoslavia must remain united. Both the United States and the European Union
warned the individual Republics that separation from Yugoslavia would not be acceptable
and should anyone of the Republics break away that Republic would not be recognized nor
ever granted entry into the European Union.
